The Other Box Score THE OTHER Box Score
Part Four -- What the Numbers Say

The Ledger.

A WAR reconstruction engine for the integrated record. The methodology that makes the comparison makeable, documented openly, the data open, the assumptions auditable.

Chapter 10 / 15
6 models -- 5 visualizations
The engine chapter

The numbers exist.
The methodology has not.

Gary Ashwill and Kevin Johnson built the Seamheads Negro Leagues Database over fifteen years. They normalized statistics across leagues, parks, and opponent strength. They produced per-season WAR for every documented Negro Leagues player.

Baseball Reference incorporated their work in 2020. FanGraphs incorporated it in 2023. Major League Baseball officially recognized it in 2024.

But the comparison question was never fully answered. Josh Gibson's career WAR is 60.2 (Seamheads). Ty Cobb's is 151.4 (Baseball Reference). The first reading says Cobb was roughly 2.5 times more valuable. The reading is wrong, and the reason it is wrong is that Cobb played more than three times as many league games as Gibson. The seasons are not the same unit.

The standard Hall of Fame methodology, JAWS, averages career WAR with seven-year peak WAR. It was built for the MLB record. It does not handle the structural conditions of Negro Leagues play. Applied without adjustment, it understates Negro Leagues players by exactly the seasonal-length disparity their leagues operated under.

This chapter builds the alternative. Rate-based career and peak metrics. Position-by-position integrated leaderboards. The methodology open, the data open, the assumptions auditable.

60.2
Gibson career WAR (Seamheads)
151.4
Cobb career WAR (BBRef)
~55
NL league games / season
154
MLB games / season
8.9
Gibson WAR / 600 PA
6.9
Cobb WAR / 600 PA
Same denominator. Different answer. The rate tells the truth the count obscured.
Fig 01

The Integrated Leaderboard

Every qualified player in the integrated record. Sorted by Rate JAWS by default. The integration is the point: Negro Leagues and MLB players ranked by the same methodology, in the same table, using the same units.

# Player Pos Era Career WAR WAR/600 PA Peak Rate Std JAWS Rate JAWS HOF
Fig 02

Standard JAWS vs. Rate JAWS

Each point is a player. Above the diagonal: players who score higher on rate JAWS than standard JAWS. Predominantly Negro Leagues players whose career totals were suppressed by short seasons. Below the diagonal: players whose career totals reflect longevity more than peak production.

Negro Leagues MLB Diagonal = equal ranking under both methods
Fig 03

The Confidence Bands

Every WAR figure on the platform is a credible interval, not a point estimate. The width of the interval reflects the underlying data completeness. Players from sparsely-documented eras have wider intervals. The platform does not paper over uncertainty. It surfaces it.

Fig 04

The Comparable Universe

A UMAP dimensionality reduction over the multi-component WAR space. Players cluster by similarity in value profile, not by ranking. Gibson clusters with Piazza and Bench. Charleston clusters with Mays. The clustering is not narrative assertion. It is multi-dimensional similarity.

Fig 05

The Methodology Sensitivity

Adjust the methodology. See the leaderboard shift. The platform does not hide its choices. It exposes them. Every parameter is documented, every alternative is auditable.

JAWS Peak Window
Rate vs. Count Balance
100% Rate 100% Count
50 / 50
NL Season Equivalent
MLE Conversion
Off
Defensive Component
Position
Catcher -- Top 10 Rank stability: 1.000
    Models 1--6

    The Engine

    Six models. Each documented with inputs, outputs, confidence labels, and the reasoning for why this approach and not an alternative. Click any card to expand the full methodology.

    Next chapter -- 11
    Cooperstown.
    Every Negro Leagues player ranked by the same methodology used to exclude them. Published with receipts.

    Cite This Chapter

    Haynes, Jeremy. "The Ledger." The Other Box Score, theotherboxscore.org/chapters/the-ledger/, 2026. Accessed .